While being optimistic about the next 50 years of Uganda, it is prudent to explore what could happen if we do not wake up to the realities that we are faced with today. What are the current trends which if not addressed could lead us to landmines in the journey to 2062? The worst-case scenario we can face in the journey ahead is failure of the state. Download to read on
INT Alumni Think-Tank
45 comments
Woow. This is quite and insightful piece. I could see everything the writer writes about as the brutal facts in my country Uganda. This document is what President M7 should actually use as his leadership working document given the current situation in Uganda. I agree with the what is in the document and i am glad that it offers the hope that much as there is such a big mess if we speak out, bring the brutal facts forward to the leadership and they act on the issues at hand, a better Uganda will prevail. The document does show the problems at hand under 8 areas of endemic corruption, population explosion, culture and ethnicity, waning agriculture and food security, land tenure and access, climate change, water pressure and influence of ICT. The challenges at hand in each area are prominently put forward but the applicable solutions to the challenges are lacking. The writer only mentions that government needs to look into it, do something about, take note of it, should fix this or else. Providing researched, applied solutions to these problems would save Uganda years and money in research to fix the nation. I must say we really must do something about our current situation and yes this may not end negatively if we speak up/advocate for change based on the brutal facts.
Moses, it would be scary if we dont realise our potential as a nation. We need to do everything we can now to ensure our nation does not end up in that mess.
This article narrates signs of dangers that if not confronted right now, then the future of our county Uganda is in jeopardy . the article predicts worst case scenario of state failure if the current happening of events are not addressed. The article points at key issues – corruption, exploding population, culture and ethnic phobia, investments questions, land etc. as requiring attention to salvage the future of Uganda.
Much as i agree to most of the issues raised in the article, i would like to slightly disagree to the point on population explosion. The article underscores the positive contribution of population to growth and development of an economy. Yes, the projections about Uganda’s population by 2062 may be realistic, and may as well be mostly urban populace. I look at population in the case of Uganda as an advantage to add to the labor force in the various industries. Uganda’s economy needs all types of labor; skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled to feed its work force. The Article should have argued for development and equipment of the anticipated population growth with all the necessary educational skills; adoption of policies supporting self employment through designing appropriate educational curriculum that can meet the needs of Uganda’s economy and industries.
I also would like to differ a little in respect to ICT – The article focuses on internet, especially use and role of social media. But Science and technology (ICT) to say, is broad, and has more advantages to play into governance and social cohesion than the negative part which is mostly used at rallying support at certain particular events. It should also be noted that most campaigns on social media must be support with other offline platforms in order to be realized. ICT can play positively into supporting prudent systems of governance, such as being used in elections, electronic financial transactions, electronic control systems, security (use of cameras), collection and archiving of information, to mention. Generally technology has the future, of course technology should go hand in hand with human resource development. it is impractical to have technology without the qualified, disciplined persons of integrity.
The article suggested rigorous transformation in leadership; leadership that is discipline and have integrity as a way forward to addressing the current realities that if not faced head on, may lead to a doom of Uganda’s future. I conquer, and would that leadership at all levels of government, not just the president, speaker, judiciary or members of parliament. The leadership question should be fixed right from the lowest units of governance, from local council 1 all through to county, district and national levels.
Overall, the article clearly and rightly captures the issues that should be dealt with in order to avoid the possible undesirable future.
A well balanced economy is what we need to avoid Uganda being a failed state by 2062. The growth of the economy will help to manage the population growth,
The article is very productive in providing a projection of the challenges that Uganda as a country will be facing in the future; 50 years from June 2012 while indicating what may happen if the issue is not sorted. Terming it a possible landmine journey to 2062.
In as much as the write indicates that “where we would rather not be”, The article is highly written in the negative and in the fear for the future. This is a negative way of thinking especially about a future of a country like Uganda which is currently proud of its status of being “the pearl of Africa”. Uganda is currently in the verge of attaining a middle income status, so it’s really demotivating for a writer to provide rhetoric on Uganda focusing on negatives other than opportunities. How I wish the writer had attended the launch of the Soroti fruit factory, the cement factory in Uganda, the Nile Bridge in Jinja, the Entebbe Kampala express highway, they would know that Uganda is headed towards greater heights in development.
Its good planning and foresightedness when we plan for the future. We should be able to forecast what challenges may come up in the future, because , it’s through such forecasting that a mitigation plan can be designed so that such challenges are mitigated before they occur. This is a good step towards crisis management.
If we know what the challenges to expect, it’s then easy for us to organize a “Not to do list” which will guide the way governance will be done. The policies designed today will be tailored towards avoiding the occurrence of such a challenge.
However Dangers looming in the horizon is quiet a negative story of the future of Uganda. The story insinuates that Uganda’s future is bleak and has no hope. I believe this is bad. It makes the foreign policy and market opportunities of Uganda get affected. It could scare off the future investors who would have loved to invest in Uganda to actually entrust their resources into Uganda economy. For example, why not look at Uganda’s increasing population as an opportunity for labor for Uganda’s industry and agriculture? Why not look at the increasing population as consumers to the products from our industries other than look at them as a burden. I believe the person who wrote the piece should have also provided of, where we would rather be than in the negative of where we would rather not be.
The article in prophesying the challenges of Uganda’s dark future while spelling out what the problems could be was not scientific. There is no clear methodology provided by the writing on how he /she arrive at those specific problems and how he arrived at the extent of the problem. The writer seems to have used personal reflection on the issue which then could make his /her judgment and opinion and not a state of fact.
In my personal reflection, I observe that in whatever we do and plan, we must plan for the future, expecting both challenges and opportunities. For then we are able to mitigate any challenge as they unfold.
Above all, in as much as the article was negative, it was spot on. However we should not ignore the scary future of Uganda if nothing is done but rather we should use the scary future to plan our present so as to have a bright future for Uganda, a perfect explanation of sustainable development
The good thing, Joseph, is that Uganda need not become the Uganda described in this article. As national transformers we have a responsibility to ensure Uganda becomes the best it can become. God is with us.
The main reasons a nation may fail are categorized as catastrophic, natural disaster, cultural or ethnic conflicts, a broken social contract between the government and the people, financial collapse and war. The other factors speak to the failures in critical areas required to build and maintain a healthy nation. I choose to potentially look at the looming dangers as opportunities for national transformation or rebuilding our nation as sometimes out of the ashes arises something often better than what was originally in its place.
I agree with the submission, my concerns are around the waning agriculture and food security that the discovery of oil may exacerbate, the illusion of a larger resource envelope may encourage the importation of food instead of driving the move towards potentially developing agriculture as a complementary industry to be supported to feed and build the nation and our neighbors.
There are currently a number of interventions in place to potentially deal with a lot of these issues but they will require a new kind of political will to execute. For example with corruption, the police and the judiciary will need to be given teeth and facilitated to handle the offenders without fear or favor, which I believe is possible if the security services are not politicized.
In regards to the population concerns there are efforts from government and non-governmental organizations to help educate the population on the need for child spacing and to limit the number of children per family, also this will be aided along by the fact that the universal primary and secondary education programs have increased awareness the impact on population and resources of having large families which see to the number of children the next generations have reducing over the next decades.
The growing population is also likely to create market for food and hence potentially boost agriculture which could deal with the youth unemployment issues and provide channels to improve the livelihood of the rural populations.
Potentially with little training and exposure the influence of the ICT revolution could be used to disseminate information for learning not only for school going children, but for farmers and those with technical skills opening up new opportunities for them to market their wares and skills and enable them earn decent incomes which would put them on track to better their lifestyles.
As a critical mass builds of people with something to lose starts the build inevitably their will be calls for greater accountability from our leadership, which calls will start the type of reform that will avert the severe deterioration of the country into the situation foreseen in the article.
My other thought is guided by the fact that sometimes it needs a major tragedy to galvanise people and bring about positive change. The greater the cost in terms of lives the more enduring and fundamental the positive change, drawing from examples of Israel, Rwanda and Japan we see a renewed sense of purpose and ownership and determination that brings about remarkable change that drives a nation and a people forward.
It is true that in the absence of good governance, people will supplant the existing social contract with one of their making but perhaps there in also lies an opportunity for the right kind of leaders to arise and fill the void, to take the reins and slowly but surely start to transform the nations having learned from the mistakes and guided by a purpose that the population can understand. Clarity of purpose that will win allegiances and support and inspire others to create solutions that improve the life of small communities and that eventually spread out to the nation.
Indeed positivity is key to the Uganda we want. We need to look all around us that may stop us attaining first world status and ensure that we remove it now.
Nations fail for various reasons including natural disasters, cultural or ethnic conflicts, a failed social contract between the government and the people, financial crashes and even war. Uganda itself has for instance experienced a number of civil wars (e.g. the Lord’s Resistance Army Revolt in Northern Uganda) in the past which have left several communities displaced, impoverished and struggling with diseases resulting from poor hygiene. However, other factors which relate to the failure in critical areas required to build and maintain a healthy nation may result in the failure of nations; unfortunately, such failures are not usually given adequate attention.
I agree with the message in the article. First and foremost, it is important for Uganda to strive for good governance as a permanent replacement for endemic corruption. This ensures that people are not robbed of resources necessary to improve their health, education and quality of life. If corruption continues to prevail, the government loses legitimacy with its people culminating in ethnic nationalism.
Samora Machel once said that, “Tribalism is the commander in chief of Africa’s problems.” Tribal culture and ethnicity are strong forces in Ugandan social life with some parts of Uganda even trying to seek autonomy from the capital in ‘Kampala’ citing grievances that range from government neglect to active discrimination and persecution. Such disparities frustrate efforts to have an integrated, coherent and legitimate government.
Other factors such as population explosion if not properly controlled have the potential the exacerbate other challenges such as poor investment in infrastructure, waning agriculture and food security. If the current improvements in the average life expectancy continue, by 2062, Uganda will not only have a population of about 130 million but also have an average age of 30 – 35 years. This would increase the working age population thereby stressing Uganda’s ability to provide basic human services, health care and employment for large segments of its youth. As it stands, the youth unemployment rate is 83% for youth between 15 and 24 years. Our food security is also threatened by the national vision for 2040 which envisages Uganda shifting more towards Manufacturing and decreasing agriculture. The agriculture industry is even further threatened by climate change characterized by rising temperatures and changes in the rainfall patterns.
The above challenges notwithstanding, Uganda can still avoid the wrong turn and have a bright future. Good governance should be prioritized. This implies that we need good leadership which is able to foster collective efforts towards achieving a national vision. With a government of the people, by the people and for the people in place, social disparities can be abandoned as people embrace integration. The fight against corruption has to be made visible – corrupt officials need to face justice and institutions in the fight such as police, IGG and judiciary need to be given teeth and the freedom to prosecute culprits impartially.
Uganda was once the food basket for the East African region; with significant but necessary changes, the industry can once again be transformed into a regional food powerhouse capable of feeding Uganda and its neighbours. This would create employment opportunities for the growing population which would also be a potential market for the food.
Sensitization of the populous on matters related to family planning is also being done country-wide by government agencies in conjunction with NGOs. Increased awareness through investment in education has also aided in this regard. In an ever-changing global world, the government also needs to harness ICT. A number of private parties are also helping in this regard for example the digital villages that are being constructed in various locations of Uganda by MTN and ATC Uganda to provide ICT training and services to people in those locations.
Yes Solomon, the challenges we have are plenty. You mention several troubled areas and what we may need to do as a country. As you are well aware the panacea to our problems is servant leadership. As national transformers let us look at ourselves and ask; what can I do for Uganda to take it to the promise land?
This article is a prediction of what could happen if we don’t change our ways.The writer points out eight key which could contribute to a bleak future come 2012, these include, endemic corruption, culture and ethnic issues, lack of investment in infrastructure, waning agriculture and food security, and land tenure access, climate change and the influence of information technology. If not addressed by 2026 Uganda experience a lot political unrest, limited access to social services, hunger, unequal distribution of wealth and tension. Some of which these things are already happening now in 2018.
His most emphasis is the role the government has to play to ensure that these predictions don’t come to pass.However, despite the fact the government plays an important role in steering the future of a country, we as citizens of Uganda should not solely rely on the leaders to prevent these dangers from happening, I believe we( citizens of Uganda) have a role to play.
We as individuals need to take responsibility for our country and believe this starts from the home-the family, the family unit plays a very big role because it is provides the foundation for preparing the minds and wishes of people for a good society. A lawless and broken family breeds lawlessness, corruption within society. The family unity has the potential to install in children good character, discipline, integrity and responsibility.
As a country we need to strengthen the family unit by putting in place systems which help the family unit to be strengthened where parents are encouraged and tough to raise children under good boundaries and regulations. And also where parents are encouraged to be good role models for their children. Through this we shall see a new breed of good leaders.
I would like to point to the changes Uganda gone through since this article was written in 2012, according to the report published by the ugandabusiness.com,on the of November 2017, shows that Uganda registered a 14.5% growth in mobile internet subscriptions, adding an estimated 1.6 m new subscribers. Fixed internet subscription grew by 3.2%, with 4,850 subscribers added during the same period.This trend continues to grow even now, most people in living in the rural areas have a facebook account.
Although I agree with the writer on some grounds especially the endemic corruption, there are other areas which are experiencing growth, for example in anticipation of climate change the government is rolling out programs for farmers to have water extracted from the ground for irrigation purpose in the dry season at subsided rates and giving out grants to farmers to buy irrigation system.
Uganda is moving towards a digital economy where 8 of 10 mobile users have mobile internet access, even despite the introduction of social media tax many Ugandans continue to use several social media platforms for business, gossip and information sharing.
For Uganda’s case, the likely factors in my view as per the article to cause a failed state are endemic corruption, unharnessed population explosion and parochial interests.
Endemic corruption is visible in today’s Uganda and all we do is talk about it without tough actions being taken. Committees sit to probe corrupt officials but the punishments aren’t given to deter others from engaging in this obscene act. We don’t teach our young people what is right, and if we do, many conduct themselves contrary to what they preach leaving our young people confused. Indeed we are on a doomed path to 2062 unless patriotism or INT values are preached and practiced by all for people to once again have the fear of God in them and live by kingdom principles.
The second factor which I agree strongly with is population explosion if left unharnessed. For an unplanned country, distribution of opportunities across the nation is a challenge. This means that a larger part of the population is left in cities hence tendencies for increased crime rate, food security challenges because few are left to tend farmlands or if land is as we know it is taken over by the corrupt officials with their selfish interests food security is the least of their worries.
Culture and ethnicity may not be such a big factor to contend with in 2062 with the level of inter marriages going on lately. We have learnt to accommodate our cultural differences to some extent.
This article having been written in 2012, is outdated highlighting poor investment in infrastructure among the factors for our doom. Today many projects are ongoing to improve Uganda’s infrastructure across the country, some projects commissioned with others coming on stream such as the pipeline, dams, refinery among others. The only challenge I see here even visible today is people not having the ability to utilize say the roads to benefit their business because after all, they are incapacitated to produce high quality competitive products for national and global markets. So you find people drying maize on the very expensively built roads instead of using them to transport produce.
Infrastructure, for health and education however is still in a failed state mainly because of corruption. Therefore we can’t expect to have quality healthcare professionals or educationists for our country to prosper by 2062.
Climate change is a reality. Action is critical and scientific considerations to avert catastrophes must be considered even as we build new sustainable infrastructure. Agriculture as a sector shall indeed suffer great losses if we don’t proceed with caution.
I do agree that water is going to be a global problem and Uganda needs clear strategies and initiatives from our trained scientists to avert this pending catastrophe. We must fund research to develop solutions specific for Uganda in light of the changing global dynamics.
Uganda appreciates the contribution of ICT to national development however caution is required to have platforms that support business and serve the interests of the majority and not a few. ICT links to all sectors of the economy and is indeed the future in this era of many advancements, many of which we remain ignorant about or are caught off guard most of the time.
An Arab-spring scenario is doubtful in my view in the short term but I must caution Government to constantly update its public relations strategy for people to receive accurate and balanced information from the state. Otherwise misinformed people are prone to anything for the scenario to happen. Government should wake up, listen and act.
I like that despite the challenges we are going through, you recognize the progress made since the article was written in 2012. As Ugandans we need to acknowledge our challenges whilst also celebrating our wins.
One step at a time we will eventually see the promise land.
I like your thoughts about the family taking an active role in who we become as a nation. Our nation`s leaders needs to be very deliberate in promoting family values. This family values the form the culture of our nature going forward.
Sandra, I agree with you that we as citizens have responsibility to become better people in our different spheres of life, eg, as parents. The family unit, rightly has to be strengthened.
Uganda does continue to go in certain industries which is commendable. Our prayer is that this will spread to all other industries.
I think the whriter did a good Job while highlighting on the problems that our country Uganda is facing ,despite the fact that he forgot that all such propblems are being handled though it may not be as quick as he thinks,Uganda is a developing country with a desire also to be like other developed countries which i also believe they also still have challenges that is still hitting their government.
This article talks about what i may say things that have hindered Uganda’s development today and if not properly handled may lead Uganda into a deep grave in 50 years to come,it highlighted on endemic corruption,population explossion,poor investment in infrastructure,culture and ethenicity,waning agriculture and food security ,climate change crisis and water pressure.all these factors are truely existing but to a certain extent the government of uganda has tried to react upon them and i believe by the time 50 years will come to an end ,issues of corruption will be a myth in uganda. The government have put strict measures to fight against corruption say establishing anti-corruption units,punishing those caught in corruption scandals as where as teaching the public how evil it is to practice it.
With population explosion ,i believe it can also be solved if the government impliments it’s plan of coming up with other cities along side Kampala,with opening up more cities means good social services in place,recreation centres,administration centres as where as more job opportunities ,this means people espencially the youth will have no reason to move from their home places when they have city services ,so there is hope for Uganda’s population,we only need to encourage the officials concerned to bring find ways on how they can have productive population that can build it’s nation,otherwise,the more the people,the more the development.
Moreso,there has been improvement in infrastructre development such as roads, schools say universities and other institutions,research centres,science and technology hubs .all these have been put in place by the government and depending where we are now and where we were in the past as far as these infrustructure investment in concerned gives us a beautiful developed picture of Uganda in 50 years from now.However,the government needs just to come with strong measures that will pull out all those poor managers of these departments who are dumping our nations …”puting the right people at the bus and wrong people off the bus ” will bring fundamental change to our country uganda the the Pearl of Africa.
The writer talks about waning agriculte and food security as where as climate change but he did not give a soltion to it.most of ugandans are farmers though on small scale due to the fact that they have not been very empowered well to make agriculture to be an attractive venture though the biggest percentage depends on it.Uganda’s agricultre is rain fed which means we depend on climate to live,therefore with this issue of climate change ,the government needs to come out with a strong and effective regional meteological centres that can give a clear weather forecastings to the farmers. or promote irrigation farming since uganda is much more endowed with water resources which is just underutilised and improperly managed.so to me,i see all the mentioned problems are under way being worked on,we only call for national peace and security if we are to see these problems completely solved in fift years to come .let us be patient and act since we all know that Rome was not buit in one day.
The author of the article highlights the possible problems that Uganda may face in the next 50 odd years if we do not take the necessary developmental steps. Uganda is certainly taking steps to ensure that we have the Uganda we want by 2062. The question that will continue to be asked is; are we doing enough to become a first world country by 2062?
I think the writer did a good Job while highlighting on the problems that our country Uganda is facing ,despite the fact that he forgot that all such propblems are being handled though it may not be as quick as he thinks,Uganda is a developing country with a desire also to be like other developed countries which i also believe they also still have challenges that is still hitting their government.
This article talks about what i may say things that have hindered Uganda’s development today and if not properly handled may lead Uganda into a deep grave in 50 years to come,it highlighted on endemic corruption,population explossion,poor investment in infrastructure,culture and ethenicity,waning agriculture and food security ,climate change crisis and water pressure.all these factors are truely existing but to a certain extent the government of uganda has tried to react upon them and i believe by the time 50 years will come to an end ,issues of corruption will be a myth in uganda. The government have put strict measures to fight against corruption say establishing anti-corruption units,punishing those caught in corruption scandals as where as teaching the public how evil it is to practice it.
With population explosion ,i believe it can also be solved if the government impliments it’s plan of coming up with other cities along side Kampala,with opening up more cities means good social services in place,recreation centres,administration centres as where as more job opportunities ,this means people espencially the youth will have no reason to move from their home places when they have city services ,so there is hope for Uganda’s population,we only need to encourage the officials concerned to bring find ways on how they can have productive population that can build it’s nation,otherwise,the more the people,the more the development.
Moreso,there has been improvement in infrastructre development such as roads, schools say universities and other institutions,research centres,science and technology hubs .all these have been put in place by the government and depending where we are now and where we were in the past as far as these infrustructure investment in concerned gives us a beautiful developed picture of Uganda in 50 years from now.However,the government needs just to come with strong measures that will pull out all those poor managers of these departments who are dumping our nations …”puting the right people at the bus and wrong people off the bus ” will bring fundamental change to our country uganda the the Pearl of Africa.
The writer talks about waning agriculte and food security as where as climate change but he did not give a soltion to it.most of ugandans are farmers though on small scale due to the fact that they have not been very empowered well to make agriculture to be an attractive venture though the biggest percentage depends on it.Uganda’s agricultre is rain fed which means we depend on climate to live,therefore with this issue of climate change ,the government needs to come out with a strong and effective regional meteological centres that can give a clear weather forecastings to the farmers. or promote irrigation farming since uganda is much more endowed with water resources which is just underutilised and improperly managed.so to me,i see all the mentioned problems are under way being worked on,we only call for national peace and security if we are to see these problems completely solved in fift years to come .let us be patient and act since we all know that Rome was not buit in one day.
The article is well researched and the author backs up his or her arguments with statistics. The author does indeed paint a very gloomy picture about the Uganda he or she sees in the next about fifty years if certain fundamental changes are not implemented. Many of the predictions the author makes have actually already come to pass.
Take example the problem of endemic corruption which the author predicts will result in the depletion of our resources and the loss of legitimacy of the government with its people. I believe we have already gotten to this point.
The question of social media. It is quite interesting to note that the author foresaw that social media would result increase in awareness and increase group grievances. This has already manifested. I do however prefer to look at it in the positive light because technology and social media are here to stay. The government needs to find means of making sure that the people get the right information about what the government is doing for them. The government should look at social media as a means of getting direct unfiltered feedback from the populace and take appropriate action to address the concerns raised.
The Arab spring had it negatives but again I prefer to look at the positive aspects, it led to the overthrow of dictators in Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Tunisia. When people find themselves in a situation where they are oppressed and desperate and have nothing to live for (as was the case of the young man who set himself on fire in Tunisia resulting in the start of the Arab spring) then indeed I agree with the author that there will be an uprising in Uganda if no action is taken by the government.
With respect to the issue of urban population explosion, I shudder to think about how much worse the situation could be fifty or so year from now given the current trends. The Government is not able to provide basic services such as free health care. The crime rates in Kampala are probably at their highest in the recent past.
Land conflicts are increasing by the day some of these conflicts have resulted in murder. I agree with the author that the government needs to find a solution to the land issue sooner rather than later.
The picture painted by the author on agriculture and climate change is quite gloomy. Uganda seems to be doomed in the long run whether the proposed interventions on agriculture are made or not. The author does not propose any interventions with respect to addressing the question of climate change. Perhaps as a country we need to greatly reduce our dependence on agriculture.
I agree entirely with the conclusion that if government rules through fear in intimidation then indeed the dark pictures painted in the article will come to pass. Unless corruption is firmly and urgently dealt with, Uganda will remain a third world country. Uganda needs leaders that are visionary, selfless and that truly care about our country and its people. Leaders who are willing to deal with the issues the author raises such as corruption, the land issue and tribalism.
Patricia, it would certainly be doom and gloom by 2062 if we do not deal with our problems. As transformational leaders let us look at our present spheres of influence and then work diligently at building the Uganda we want. If we all do a bit we certainly CAN overcome.
The article presents a real gloomy picture of doom for Uganda in 2062 if the various mainly natural manmade disasters are not controlled. Many possible disasters mentioned in 2012 are already issues Uganda is dealing with in 2018 let alone 2062. The issues of endemic corruption, uncontrolled population growth, ethnic division, poor infrastructure, lack of full productivity in agriculture, destruction of the environment leading to natural disasters like landslides and drought, lack of proper management of the social media are already issues with potential to cause instability in the country now.
Endemic corruption and ethnic divisions are already issues which are prevalent and explosive in the Uganda of 2018. Big government projects are bogged down for a long time due to high levels of corruption with both the high and low in the system of its management. When we do not get value for money then it becomes difficult for the country to get the economic returns from the investments made on public infrastructure and the like. The lack of trust in the leadership and believe that government is doing the right thing then we have a restless population which leads to instability.
There is a picture painted in the article of a lack of full productivity of the agricultural sector in respect to its contribution to GDP. To me this is very important and fundamental as agriculture employs the largest number of people in the country but because of lack of modernization, the fruits of the efforts despite the fertile soils and nice climate are very low. This is something which needs urgent attention as we move towards 2062, Uganda being a rich tropical country with fertile soils can be the food basket of the entire region and enhance productivity through use of modern practices of farming. We also need to set up several agro based processing industries to add value on the coffee, tea, cotton etc. to enable the country develop.
The article has a section on social media which is quite revealing that the author already saw what role it can play in national development in 2012 at a time the social media penetration was still quite low. Social media in a country with questionable governance issues can be used to mobilize for protest of the Arab spring model. However, where the governance is right and democratic principles respected, social media is a tool the state can use to get feedback from the population.
With the population explosion, Uganda with a fertility rate of 5 per woman, is amongst the countries with the highest population growth rate in the world. This is one of the reasons why Uganda is failing to achieve the lower middle income status because the population growth greatly outstrips the GDP growth. This with the lack of good infrastructure especially housing in the cities and towns, as well as lack of affordable healthcare presents a landmine of instability. This as well as the rampant land conflicts and evictions due to the various land tenure systems need to be constructively handled to prevent the slide to disaster by 2062
Corruption is indeed endemic in our country, Geoffrey. We need to come up with systems that will help us to overcome.
As you rightly say social media can be used for good within a country that is well governed. As Uganda this is so we should have aspirations for.
Population growth does bring a challenge. However with a well balanced plan on how are nation can meet this challenge I believe we can leverage on this growth and actually grow our economy.
This article is a little discouraging to some a greater extent and that is if we don’t change our ways of doing things, however, it’s a blend depending on the magnitude of the problem if well attended to and if the mitigation strategies are well handled for even 2062 is not that far.
I also would like to differ a little in respect to population explosion – Unless aggressively addressed, uncontrolled growth in urban areas will likely outpace the government’s ability to provide basic social services. This would worsen development problems as well as health issues.
Social protection is an important human security issue, most focused on those that are unable to compete in society to sustain their lives. And if every human deserves or is entitled to security, there are many ways human beings themselves can address this issue through environment conservation to reduce the risk of natural calamity, self-awareness about various risk factors or even creating their own informal mechanisms in the area they live, so as not to depend on the government, state or others for important yet not urgent needs. Of course, they are entitled to securities such as those from theft, murder and such provided by their government. However, it is also important to note what framework of social protection can be useful based on the country’s context.
We do have many social challenges, Jacqueline. I believe the uniting of forces as INT and other like minded people we can begin to form a society that enjoys freedom and whilst also developing our nation.
The contents of the article come from a disheartened place. The article highlights the dangers the country will face if we maintain the status quo of doing things. The article states the challenges faced in the country that I agree with. I also believe that these challenges can be addressed to avoid the anticipated bad scenarios. Some of the problems include: a) Corruption is a major problem in the country today, the entire existing system needs to be overhauled to combat this problem, b) Population explosion characterized by a large number of unemployed youth, however this population can be used to the country’s advantage through use of the labor force to expand industries and generate extra demand that will stimulate investment, c) Poor investment in the infrastructure which is the backbone of any country and is responsible for improving the quality of life for the people and boosting economic growth. Others stated challenges include waning agriculture and food security, land tenure and the influence of ICT. These are the brutal facts and as national transformers, we need to develop practical solutions to these challenges. Our country needs a good value system that emphasizes integrity, accountability, hard work among others. This in addition to exemplary leadership will redeem the nation specifically mentor the young generation into excellent leaders. The responsibility of transforming the country to minimize all these vices is with all of us.
You mention that a good value system that is essential for or development. This is absolutely true. We must ensure that a good value system permeates into all forms of our society, starting with you and me where we are. Indeed the responsibility is ours.
‘The dangers looming in the horizon’ presents a picture of a state that is at the risk of an explosion. It presents a number of threats and risks which if not addressed with urgency are likely to cause serious risks and great damage to the nation. Key factors presented include high levels of corruptions that go unchecked, likelihood of population explosion with high rates of unemployment, poor infrastructural development that does not favor trade and clear communication as well as challenges of food security since the agricultural sector is struggling and challenges of land tenure among others.
The threats presented here are real and as transformational leaders we need to take up our lot and address it to the best of our ability.
We also have a responsibility to lobby government and challenge our leaders to look in to these issues and provide solutions. Today Uganda is the 3rd poorest state in the World not necessarily due to lack of resources but misuse of the same.
This report presents an urgent call for us to do something to change the status-quo for the good of the coming generation. The poorest people have continued to be very poor and can no longer afford even the basics of services. Systems have been politicized and leadership performance is based on the expectations from the next elections rather than what ought to be done.
However, the article needed to present more figures and statistics o present factual evidence of what they are talking about. If it’s a case of corruption, how much has been lost and what is its implication?
It also presents ICT as a threat yet in actual sense it should be an opportunity to growth, research and exposure. Well as it has its challenges, if managed well, it has potential to bring about innovation, e- learning and promoting trade.
You rightly mention that Uganda is endowed with a lot of natural resources that we can exploit for our advantage and then our own development. We are struggling to do so because of corruption. Our role as national transformers is to boldly take the necessary steps to bring this to an end. We can start by refusing corruption at any level, eg, giving bribes to the police.
Response to ”Dangers Looming in the Horizon”
This Article highlights what could happen to us as Ugandans if we do not wake up to the realities we are faced today. The writer covers pertinent areas ranging from cultural/ethnic conflicts, the struggling economy, corruption, population exploitation, poor investment in infrastructure, poor national planning, moral failure, poor education policy and health care, poverty, population explosion, low life expectancy, lack of enlightened visionary leaders, sectarian tendencies, tribal and religious conflicts, waning agriculture and food security, under-investment in Agriculture Infrastructure, poor land tenure systems, climate change crisis, water pressures, influence of ICT and the leadership gap. All these are dangers looming in the horizon.
Since I come from the Courts of Law, I thought it fit to critique the article by highlighting the role of the Judiciary in addressing some of the dangers highlighted. The role of the Judiciary is vital in this endeavor through enhancing access to Justice, Law and Order services particularly for vulnerable persons and fighting corruption in order to strengthen Uganda’s competitiveness for wealth creation and inclusive growth. The judiciary also has a role in promoting sustainable development through rule of law.
In addressing the challenge of climate change crisis, water pressures, landslides, flooding and related environmental challenges, which also have a bearing on infrastructure development, Judiciary has a role to play on how it handles environmental litigation. It has a duty of balancing environment and development considerations, influencing societal attitudes towards the environment and the concept of sustainable development. This will help in furthering the development of legal concepts in the area of sustainable development and the implementation of regional and global environmental laws. The decisions in the courts of law will also have a big impact in addressing climate change.
To overcome the dangers looming in the horizon, the Judiciary should continue to exercise its independence so as to promote stability in our country and hence ensuring the necessary environment for development.
The Judiciary is a critical stakeholder under the Justice Law and Order (JLOS) sector. Independence of the Judiciary is key in promoting confidence of the public in the judicial system. The land problem for example is becoming so tense in Uganda. Currently there is a land commission led by Justice Catherine Bamugemereire. An example of recent land tensions are people who have been evicted from Lusanja thus creating tension in the area affected. The Judiciary will play an important role in promoting both structural independence and behavioral independence. Judicial officers are expected be independent and free from bias. They should not fear to take up difficult positions, should be firm in resisting corruption, and make truly independent decisions. Judicial decisions have far reaching effects in promoting the development and future investment decisions in our country.
The judiciary is a key stakeholder in ensuring the Rule of Law for economic development. The role of the judiciary is vital in promoting national development and it is becoming more and more evident that the rule of law is integral to socio-economic transformation. In conclusion, the major factor in all this will be the leadership one exercises each in their sphere of influence and this will begin with me if we are to deal with the dangers looming in the horizon.
Sarah, the observation of the law will be particularly important if we are to avoid the looming danger that could befall Uganda. When people have confidence in the law it gives them and others to invest and develop the country. The law also becomes the place where there is a level playing field. You know that in spite of who you are or your background you can succeed. Such is the joy of living in a country where there is the rule of law. Continue to fight it.
This Piece is very informative and a necessary warning that not only leaders but all Ugandans should heed. This report is a blue print that we must all use to avoid the outcomes that the author outlined. It’s time for leaders to realise that extreme effort is needed if we wish to achieve national transformation by 2026.
This paper was well researched however there are sections where the undesirable outcomes are not outlined; these include population Explosion, poor investment in infrastructure, waning agriculture and food security, land tenure and access, climate change crisis and water pressures. I really wish their undesirable outcome was clearly outlined to give more weight to this paper. But as I mentioned earlier, the research was well carried out and the facts have strong references to back them up. Having said this, I also notice that all the references are mostly from UN units and other foreign sources. Nothing was from our own government or other reliable local sources. This says a lot and scares me. Do we care about our own future? Is this the first paper of its kind that has been published to actually address our not so good looking future? This is another wake up call for our leaders. They should ask themselves how prepared we are for the future and also start foreseeing dangerous outcomes that they should work hard to avoid to save our nation from further instability. We should no longer be relying on foreign research to tell us our own problems but instead take charge of our own destiny and derive solutions ourselves for our people.
Some good observations that you have made, Masamba. INT is setting up think tanks that will thoroughly research the positions that we are in in different sectors of our country. We will then offer solutions and lobby different stakeholders for implementation. We are confident that this will ensure the ““ danger that looms““` never becomes a reality in Uganda. Do become a part of one!
I believe our story can be told differently.
1. Endemic corruption: Lists consequences of lack of education and health care, rampant illiteracy and high infant mortality rates. I appreciate corruption is a hindrance to a number of issues, however, on its own, it does not stop development. Simply check the facts and statistics on Uganda performance in infant mortality, literacy levels and current growth in health and education. This argument seems passionate but does not at all synchronize with actual facts on the country progress in the areas pointed out.
2. Population explosion culture. I believe your thesis on this is very un-idealistic. All the fastest growing economies have had their biggest advantage being a bigger population/consumer base or customers. I believe growth in population will lead to growth economically as we have seen in countries like Nigeria and Ethiopia. Note that both countries have not had steady or perfect leadership but economies have continued to develop with ever increasing population.
I don’t know which several parts of Uganda are seeking autonomy, as per my knowledge. They may be one or two sects, and these have also shelved the idea as Uganda is naturally balanced that all regions need each other resources.
3 poor infrastructure, Agriculture, climate change, and land-water pressure.
I believe Uganda has made tremendous progress in health sector even on a tight budget. It has developed health facilities successfully, combatted several communicable diseases. All these facts can be ascertained and compared with performance of our neighbors in Africa. I believe it is very good that as a country we prioritized communication, transport and power generation as these are major factors in journey to transform from third world to developed country. Progress of these projects are factual and can be ascertained. It begs the question, why fund agriculture extensively if u don’t have the roads to transport your product or the energy to process your raw materials. Government has embarked on several irrigation schemes to boost modern agriculture and slowly head away from rain fed agriculture. Climate change is a global challenge and cannot be tackled by any one country alone, Uganda is on several forums and is in phase of adopting several treaties to keep our environment safe.
Water pressure will certainly come up but only as an infrastructure challenge. The distribution has to be expanded but as a resource, Uganda has enough water sources for population of 2062. I disagree with the thesis given on our population estimation. Research has also shown given the higher exposure and literacy level, most people end up preferring much smaller families as e young population grows. They are more sensitive on population and prefer less children compared to previous generations.
Land access. As I said population growth drives economic growth. Just like India saw several villages turn into major cities. With economic growth, we will witness several towns upgraded to city status as growth fosters economic development as well.
ICT or technology is good especially for transparency and accountability. I believe as a country we are able to see more of what has been happening underground now that it is being exposed. Many can easily see this as soon yet it is great progress in fighting corruption and bad leadership. Today everything can be captured and with evidence justice prevails.
We need to start looking at the glass as half full and not half empty. Express a balanced opinion. The African story much more positively. It is the journey of progress that builds character and identity. Let’s build our identity, with our vision and at our pace. Thank you.
Interesting thoughts that you share, Doreen. My encouragement to you is that you continue to be a national transformer as an Oakseed. I am sure that you ideas that are not necessarily conventional will add value to INT and other groups.
50 years from today it is expected that Uganda will be a modern, first world country. Our government seems optimistic indicating growing statistics of GDP and per capita income. We allude to our human resource and natural resources, making declarations about modern agriculture, increasing industrialisation and educated population, and making speeches of nationalism, pan-Africanism, social economic transformation and democracy. However, the writer of Uganda 2062, Dangers looming in the horizon, gives us room to pause and seriously think about the roadblocks on this grand journey we are taking towards 2062. If we want to make it as a nation, we should open our eyes to the present clues that indicate that we as a nation maybe on the wrong part of the road to making it as a first world country. Corruption is still rampant in all sectors of the national economy. This alone has been and continues to be the biggest threat to national transformation. While the writer goes on to mention other red herrings like population explosion, climate crisis, tribalism and poor investments in business and agriculture. I personally believe that these would be dispensed with to some extent if we fought corruption with a government of integrity. A government of integrity is a government that makes a conscious choice to consistently act according to applicable rules and regulations, norms, culture, values and ethical standards regulated by law and society’s values; in summary acting with good governance. Good governance is accountable, responsible, transparent, efficient, participatory, enforces rule of law, and has strategic vision. Good governance opens the door to effective property rights, investment freedom, judicial effectiveness, proper tax burden, fiscal health, labour freedom, proper government spending, trade freedom, monetary freedom and financial freedom. Good governance allows for innovation and growth whereas corruption on the other hand erodes a country of its resources and destroys the economy. Corruption is described as a form of dishonesty or criminal activity undertaken by a person or organisation entrusted with a position of authority. Political and government corruption diverts a country’s scarce resources and weakens a country’s public and private institutions eroding its control policies and procedures and disadvantaging its people. A corrupted Uganda economy will not be able to function effectively because corruption prevents the natural laws of the economy from functioning freely. Currently, Uganda ranks as 151 least corrupt nation out of 175 countries, according to the 2017 Corruption Perceptions Index reported by Transparency International. This is high and if we as a country would like to achieve first world status by 2062, we need to seriously work on eradicating corruption from the corridors of our governments, the boardrooms of our businesses, the pews of our churches and the bedrooms of our homes. Ugandans are not lazy, they have great ideas, good policies, and are an innovative people; but as the writer pointed out, “pervasive corruption frustrates all the reform efforts of any leader”, and this has contributed to the state of Uganda today. In order to attain first world status within the next 50 years, we are going to have to take a hard look at ourselves and purposely build up the value of integrity and good governance in every sphere of our influence.
Corruption could very well become the nemesis to our development in Uganda. As much as we can we need to demand that their is good governance in all sectors of our nation. I encourage you, Sheila, to continue to play your role and never give in. If not us, then who?
The writer who appears well versed with the current reality of Uganda paints a picture of what will go wrong if the current state of affairs as per his observations are not reversed. He expresses a wish from the onset of his writing in the statement “where we would rather not go”.
I agree with his analysis in as far as some of the issues are currently.
His synopsis analyses some of the critical issues facing the nation of Uganda today. These issues have raged on for some time and their effects can already be seen, to validly predict that if not addressed they will cause a doom in future. The writer even paints the picture of the likely outcome of such factors if not addressed, chief of which could be a total failure of the state. Not withstanding the analyzed factors, the failure of state may also be caused by factors beyond the leadership control such factors as natural calamities and disasters.
The factors analyzed include the current endemic corruption. Evidently, corruption in Uganda has reached at alarming levels in some areas. The magnitude of the corruption problem stretches from the lowest basic system such as a police report, a health care provider, a family entitlement, to massive embezzlement of government funds in Million of dollars. Its has stretched from corruption of morals to beliefs and systems. This will lead to lack of resources to run government programs and hence national collapse of state.
The other factors include rapid and unplanned population growth which is a source of unemployment, social strife and strain on resources. The current and ethnicity of Uganda, being a diverse cultural nation but yet the respective tribes and cultures agitating for self-rule. This will in long run breed tribal conflicts. The poor investment in infrastructure will lead to breakdown in social services provision and social strife. The waning agriculture which is the majority employer of many Ugandans will not only lead to unemployment but also to famine, food insecurity and insecurity in general. The land tenures and access to land is already a challenge with evident cases of land grabbling a back log of cases of land contestations.
Additionally, Climate change as a result of environmental degradation has led to disasters in some cases like the mountain areas, and some environmental related diseases. The influence of ICT more so on media as evidence in uptake and use of social media has led to some undesirable outcomes like the Arab spring. Such may become prevalent if no control is put in place.
Whereas the write rightly analyzed the state of some of the factors and focusing on what can go long, looking at the positive side of the same factors, one can see positive impact from the same factors. Harnessing the dividends of such factors may be more beneficial and provide long term benefits than the analyzed negative effects.
The high population growth rate gives a potential ready market for industrial good as more industrialization is undertaken besides offering ready labor for the developing industries. There is evidence to this in countries like China where it has reaped the dividends of a big population. Africa is under world focus partly because of its population.
The cultural diversity is also a great resource. It can be used for tourism where the tourists would be treated to a variety of cultures and tribal practices than the negative elements of conflict.
The government of Uganda has for the last couples of years deliberately prioritized the investment in infrastructure as evidenced in the increased number of electricity generating dams, extension of tarmac roads to the various parts of the country and urban uplifts among others.
The use of ICT is on a rise and evidently good things are coming out of this development. Many software programs have been developed and have eased the way of doing business and scaling the country to the international level.
So whereas the writer validly puts a case of the doom on the horizon, on the other side of the analysis, there are dividends that can be reaped form the same factors. Such benefits will not only neutralize the negative effects but also have potential o trigger transformation of the country
Dangers looming on the Horizon
Introduction
The article Dangers looming on the Horizon was written by an unknown author. Given the circumstances, it is not possible to ascertain the qualifications and authority that the author had to give such an assessment of the nation Uganda.
My assumption would be that the article was penned by a Ugandan adult of sound mind.
The work presented is meant to be provocative and such would be classed as largely fictional.
It is my analysis that the target audience for this work is any individual who is interested in seeing a transformed and prosperous Uganda.
Methodology
The methodology used to arrive at the presented article is unknown.
Summary
The author has highlighted a few areas of concern in relation to the future of the nation Uganda that if left unattended to could lead us into hell on earth. Some of the areas/faculties of concern include the following.
a) Unchecked corruption
b) Population explosion
c) Poor investment in public infrastructure
d) Poor planning for agriculture and food security.
e) Poor planning for public water harvesting and water usage.
f) The role of ICT on the stability of governments.
Discussion
The author has gone to great lengths to explain the challenges associated with corruption and the limitations that this vice places on the progress of any society including but not limited to the negation of all positive reforms.
What has not been clearly pointed out is the fact that corruption in Uganda in particular is as a result of social and political failure. Whereas it is indeed true that while scandal after scandal has rocked our country as the government looked on, the church, the family and even the individual have also greatly failed. In Uganda, every single day is heralded by a new scandal of embezzlement and corruption with each occurrence dwarfing the former as covered by our dailies.
Transparency International estimates that Africa lost over $140 Billion USD to corruption annually. This represents over 25% of the combined GDP for Africa. For a continent that needs massive investment to be able to achieve the SDGs (2030) and reduce endemic poverty, it is clear that this level of corruption will about run down our continent if we don’t arrest it. Uganda ranks 149th least corrupt country out of 180 countries polled. This makes Uganda the 31st most corrupt country and our performance in reversing this trend has not been a source of confidence.
Eliminating corruption in Uganda would go a long way in freeing up resources to address poor investment on agriculture, water harvesting and food security. It is true that there is need to increase the availability of resources to address the above challenges but in the presence of endemic corruption no amount of resources would ever address our needs adequately.
With the right leadership/ politics and stewardship, it is possible to rebuild our public institutions, eliminate corruption and build a Uganda that not only serves the present generations but one that guarantees the future of our children’s’ children.
Conclusion
Ours is a Uganda that has been blessed by God. The source of the River Nile which kept our Lord and savior Jesus Christ alive (while he was exiled in Egypt as he hid from Herod). We have been endowed with excellent weather, great people, good soils, minerals and many other blessings.
We have a prophetic position as a land called to play a critical part in the divine plans for years to come. We must however rid ourselves of all things that so easily entangle us. It is the responsibility of every individual, family, church and any other institution to work towards zero corruption as well as purpose to address all barriers that stand in the way of our God given potential.
Critique of Dangers Looming on the Horizon.
This is a very critical opinion, the article is well explored, and the author backs up his or her arguments with valuable data. The author does indeed paint a very miserable picture about the Uganda as seen in the next fifty years if certain basic changes are not implemented. Many of the forecasts the writer makes have already come to pass. The image painted by the author on agriculture and climate change is quite dismal. Uganda seems to be hopeless in the long run whether the proposed interventions on agriculture are made or not. The writer does not propose any interventions with respect to addressing the question of climate change.
With the population explosion, Uganda having a fertility rate of 5 births per woman, is amongst the countries with the highest population growth rate in the world. This is one of the reasons Uganda is failing to achieve the lower middle-income status because the population growth greatly exceeds the GDP growth. This with lack of good infrastructure especially housing in the towns, as well as lack of reasonable healthcare presents a landmine of uncertainty. This as well as the raging land conflicts and evictions due to the various land tenure systems need to be productively handled to avert the slip to catastrophe by 2062
It also presents ICT as a threat yet in genuine sense it should be an opportunity to growth, investigation and exposure. Well as it has its challenges, if managed well, it has potential to bring about innovation, e- learning and promoting trade. The risks presented here are real and as transformational leaders we need to take up our lot and address it to the best of our ability. Churchill said and I quote: Uganda “is a wonderful new world. The scenery is different; the vegetation is different, the climate is different, and most of all, the people are different from anywhere to be seen in the whole range of Africa.” Churchill went on to describe Ugandans as majestic and elegant and Uganda as the “Pearl of Africa”—a name that the government still uses in its current tourist brochures. But Churchill was a man of enormous insight and remarked that there were “sinister aspects” to Uganda that were not always easy to see. Although Uganda remains one of the most beautiful countries in Africa, with some of the continent’s most graceful, well-educated and kindhearted people, Uganda’s post-independence era has been marked by extended periods of turbulence, brutality and authoritarian rule by several very sinister leaders.
We also have a responsibility to lobby government and challenge our leaders to investigate these issues and provide solutions. Today Uganda is the 3rd poorest state in the World not necessarily due to lack of resources but misuse of the same I agree entirely with the conclusion that if government rules through fear and intimidation then indeed the dark pictures painted in the article will come to pass. Unless corruption is firmly and urgently dealt with, Uganda will remain a desperate state. Uganda needs leaders that are visionary, selfless and that truly care about our country and its people. Leaders who are willing to deal with the issues the author raises such as corruption, the land conflicts and tribalism
Our country needs a good education value system that stresses integrity, accountability, hard work among others. This in addition to exemplary leadership will redeem the nation specifically mentor the young generation into excellent leaders. The responsibility of transforming the country to reduce all these shortcomings is with all of us.
summary
In this document, the Think Tank raises the different issues that would hinder Uganda from achieving the preferred Uganda by 2062 if they are not addressed. These trends are classified as natural challenges which include the natural disorder, cultural or ethnic conflicts, broken social contract between the government and people financial collapse and war. Other than the natural endemics there other endemic of corruption, un harnessed population explosion, parochial interest, poor investment infrastructure, poor national planning and un even development provide the kinds of environment.
It is noted that such endemics as corruption, bribes, kickbacks, favouritism, nepotism and practices continue rob the country’s economy through tax envision and in turn deny Ugandans an opportunity to good health, education and quality of life. The danger of a quick population did not go unnoticed it is projected that by 2016 the population will have grown to 132.4 million people with the youth comprising of 50% of the national electorate. within this kind of growth, the government may fail to provide social services
Cultural and tribal disputes have created significant social tensions that have made difficult to establish a coherent legitimate government. In addition, poor investment in infrastructure in the different spheres of the economy have caused brain drain the author observed that Uganda suffers Brain drain which has heavily affected the service delivery. Worse still the agriculture sector that employs the majority of the Ugandans is feared to decline.
Analysis
I entire agree with the Think Tank for the preferred future to be realised there is need for an overhaul of all the systems in the country starting with governance. Good governance entails accountability, transparency, enhanced public participation in decision making, strengthened public and adherence to rule of law. with the presence of corruption such privileges cannot be enjoyed. this is because corruption leads to grave violations of social economic rights.
Although government prohibits corruption the reality on ground is different and this has been because of the weak legal systems. there is need for stringent legal reforms towards those who are engaged in corruption. Other than the stringent legal reforms there’s need for the nation to develop a strong value system that believes in integrity and rule of law. With a national value system issues that arise with cultural diversity are also harmonised.
Population growth per say would not be bad if it is equipped it because a hindrance to economic development of a country if the country is poor and technologically backward country. This is because it growth reduces output by lowering the per capita availability of capital. However, this can be mitigated when government invests in its labour force such that it becomes productive.
In addition to investment in the different spheres, there is need for innovation. innovation contributes to economic by increasing higher productivity. innovation goes hand in hand with technology, there must be updated technology and not depend on the old technology that has been shelved by other nations.
Conclusively
The dangers highlighted by the think tank are serious concerns that have to be addressed before the preferred future can be achieved. This is because these are very challenges that have held us in the state that the nation is in. The greatest resource for the nation is its people if well harnessed it can lead to the desired Uganda.
Reading through this article made me wonder if there is another, on the positives of where Uganda could be in 2062, but again I remembered the title of this particular article, “Dangers Looming in the Horizon”- Where we would rather not be. This is a very effective title for the article.
It does not prophesy doom on the “Pearl of Africa”, “Gifted by Nature”, but rather looks at the trends of events and warn us”, especially national transformers, that if we do not arise and wakeup to put a stop to the way things are going, then unfortunately the names used to describe our lovely nations may change.
It is interesting to note that some of the predictions that this team made in June 2012 are already happening now. For example the article talks about several part of Uganda seeking autonomy. Look at the case of Kasese who wanted a break away from Uganda simply because they felt the central government was not addressing their cultural and ethnic issues. Other traditional bounds are also being compromised as tribes threaten to break away from one another.
The issue of youth unemployment propelling youth into criminality and violence is yet another urgent ugly beast that is staring in our faces on a daily. “Boda Boda 2010” group is evidence of this. Young unemployed boys and girls were engaged in high level crimes to earn a living and by their own testimonies, it looked like we, as a state, had failed to help them. There have been government efforts to address this youth skilling challenge through tailoring, saloon and cookery programmes. At the end of these trainings, a cash amount is given to each group as startup capital. However, findings and discussions around this arrangement have discovered that the programme has not fully addressed the problem. The money is either shared by few or used for totally different things.
As we were growing up we were taught in our social studies classes that agriculture is the back borne for Uganda’s economy. I am not confident this is true. We eat more of our food locally than sell. The exports are minimal and stringent. We always boasted of our soils and waters (nature) as an advantage we had over other countries. Not anymore. I recently watched a youtube video by the World Economic Forum and National Geographics showing Netherlands (small) and Israel (desert) as some of the highest exporters of natural produce, fruits and vegetable in the world. Netherlands farms do this without soils and 90% less water. The Ugandan climate too has changed. For instance it has rained the whole of 2019, with limited sunshine. These and more will continue to affect our agricultural productivity, which means either we have to go technological or even get supplementary option.
Lastly, I will hint on the issue of corruption. One friend made a bad joke that “there is need to erase a whole generation from the planet, if the corruption evil in Uganda was to be effectively dealt with.” Bad joke, like I said but it still shows the magnitude of the problem. At one point government seems to be committed. Committees are put in place to investigate and bring to book all culprits in a given saga, institutions like the Inspector General of Government (IGG) and Nakalema’s committee are among the many. What happens after their reports???? This is where we need to arise and take personal responsibility and strategies to stop this in our spheres of influence. By Edith K. G.
BERNARD MASABA
OUTREACH COORDINATOR
FIELDS OF LIFE
EDUCATION
CLASS 25
DANGERS LOOMING ON THE HORIZON CRITIQUE MODULE 5
Critique: Dangers Looming on the Horizon.
This is a very critical opinion, the article is well explored, the author backs up his arguments with valuable data. He paints a very miserable picture about Uganda as seen in the next fifty years if certain basic changes are not implemented. Many of the forecasts the writer makes have already happened. The image painted by the author on agriculture and climate change is quite dismal. Uganda seems to be hopeless. The writer does not propose any interventions with respect to addressing the question of climate change.
With the population explosion, Uganda having a fertility rate of 5 births per woman, is amongst the countries with the highest population growth rate in the world. This is one of the reasons Uganda is failing to achieve the lower middle-income status because the population growth greatly exceeds the GDP growth. This with lack of good infrastructure especially housing in the towns, as well as lack of reasonable healthcare presents a landmine of uncertainty. This as well as the raging land conflicts need to be productively handled to avert the slip to catastrophe by 2062.
It also presents ICT as a threat yet in genuine sense it should be an opportunity to growth, investigation and exposure. ICT has potential to bring about innovation, e- learning and promoting trade. The risks presented here are real and as transformational leaders we need to take up our lot and address to the best of our capability. Churchill said and I quote: ‘’Uganda is a wonderful new world. The scenery is different; the vegetation is different, the climate is different, and most of all, the people are different from anywhere to be seen in the whole range of Africa.” Churchill went on to describe Ugandans as majestic and elegant and Uganda as the “Pearl of Africa”—a name that the government still uses in its current tourist brochures. But Churchill was a man of enormous insight and remarked that there were “sinister aspects” to Uganda that were not always easy to see. Although Uganda remains one of the most beautiful countries in Africa, with some of the continent’s most graceful, well-educated and kindhearted people, Uganda’s post-independence era has been marked by extended periods of turbulence, brutality and authoritarian rule by several sinister leaders.
We also have a responsibility to lobby government and challenge our leaders to investigate these issues and provide solutions. With reference to International Monetary Fund – world Economic outlook April 2019, Today Uganda is the 27th poorest state in the World not necessarily due to lack of resources but misuse of the same. Uganda’s GDP- PPP ($) is 2,622 compared to Qatar the best state whose GDP -PPP ($) IS 134,623. I agree entirely with the conclusion that if government rules through fear and intimidation then indeed the dark pictures painted in the article will come to pass. Unless corruption is firmly and urgently dealt with, Uganda will remain a desperate state. Uganda needs leaders that are visionary, selfless that truly care about our country and its people. Leaders who are willing to deal with the issues the author raises such as corruption, the land conflicts and tribalism.
Our country needs a good education value system that stresses integrity, accountability, hard work among others. This in addition to exemplary leadership will redeem the nation specifically mentor the young generation into excellent leaders. The responsibility of transforming the country to reduce all these shortcomings is with all of us.
Dangers Looming in the Horizon is an article that was written in June 2012 by the Institute for National Transformation think tank. A think tank is a group of people who collectively perform research and develop reports and recommendations on topics relating to strategic planning or public policy and which is usually funded by corporate, government, or special interests.
Through imagination of what may be in the future , the think tank envisions what could happen if we as Ugandans do not wake up to the realities that we are faced with today and do something in our different spheres of influence to change the status-quo. The think tank analyses the current trends in Uganda while envisioning the future 50 years ahead. It looks at events that could lead to Uganda’s catastrophic failure in the next five decades and discusses how current trends under certain conditions could lead to state failure.
Endemic corruption, population explosion, culture and ethnicity, poor investment in infrastructure, waning agriculture and food security, land tenure and access, climate change crisis, water pressures and influence of ICT are the trends that have been scrutinized by the think tank in this article. Emphasis has been made on the importance of human and social factors and the impact they have on the strength of any nation. It points out clearly the different myriad reasons that can lead to failure of a nation and these include but are not limited to; a catastrophic disaster, cultural or ethnic conflicts, a broken social contract between the government and the people, financial collapse and war.
The information has been gathered from different sources and some include, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, ibid, Globalis.gru.unu.edu, Africa in Fifty years’ time, NORAD (2009), Review of the Embassy’s Development Assistance Portfolio among others.
The article is about an imagination of where we would rather not be as a country by 2062. It gives an ambiguous image of 2062. The think tank does a good job in bringing to book this kind of picture no matter how ambiguous it may be. It helps those in the leadership of the nation to priorities and plan strategically for the future of Uganda.
It is a provocative and eye opening article that the government should embrace and work towards changing the current trends and planning better for the years ahead.
The think tank leaves out very important tenets of our current education system and the development of the Health Sector which seem to be a growing concern of the future of our nation. These same issues also seem not to have been fully addressed in the Vision 2040. The threats that the bulging unemployed youthful population possess to our country in terms of crime and insecurity and how it should be addressed is also an area that the think tank should examine in their next article or as they work towards improving on this very article.
I appreciate the efforts of the think tank in looking into the various important segments of the country and envisioning what could happen to our nation in the next five decades if we get tempted as a nation to accept the status-quo and choose to do nothing about it.
With such think tanks in Uganda I can confidently say that there is hope for Uganda and I personally look forward with great anticipation of what Uganda will be like in 2062.
For God and My Country
Anita Muhairwe Malinga
Oak Seed of Class 25
This article states the challenges we have in the country and it also potrays the dangers the country will face should we not deal with them before they struck us. The writer points out 8 factors that could contribute to a destructive future which include endemic corruption, culture and ethnic issues, lack of investment in infrastructure, waning agriculture and food security and land tenure access, climate change and the influence of information technology
While most of the things mentioned by the wrier are happening to us as a nation which most certainly I conquer with the above. I still believe it’s not too late we can still turn it around and face these issues head on. For example Corruption, has been a major problem from the 1980s and this problem is already getting out of hand and as anation we need to find ways of dealing with it because overtime its affecting the leaders that get into the existing system with good intentions.
As national transformers we need to face the brutal facts and address the problems before our nations deteriorates. As a country we need to have a quality based system both in values and character for leadership positions We need to have a servant leadership style and do away with the transactional kind of leadership. It’s our responsibility to be the voice of reason for the nation
PETERSON MWESIGA
This is one of the most riveting pieces I have read, which captures Uganda’s problem with simplicity of style, yet with admirable clarity. The author traverses the plains of Uganda’s body politic and paints for us a portrait of Uganda’s future by 2062. By stating the brutal facts as they are, the author warns us that the collision trajectory on which this country seems to be headed is only inevitable if nothing is done to address the looming crisis.
It should be recalled that Uganda is a melting pot of different tribes and ethnic groups. Like many African countries, it was carved out for colonial interests in total disregard of the differences that existed among different ethnic groups, tribes and clans. Thus, unlike Rwanda, Israel or Ethiopia, Uganda is not a homogeneous nation state. This alone would require the state to take deliberate positive steps to hold the country together, even without the myriad of state dysfunctionalities so elaborately enumerated by the author, such as cultural and ethnic mistrust, a broken social contract between government and the people, and endemic corruption.
The Corruption in Uganda has graduated into some sort of ‘elite capture’ and permeated all areas of our society. Hardly any state institutions have been spared. The political elite and government bureaucrats gang up against the ordinary tax payer. Instead of planning and providing opportunities to our burgeoning population, the elite cabal’s focus is on primitive accumulation of wealth, with the result that the masses are left to wallow in poverty and fend for themselves.
It is important to note that Uganda perhaps has the highest population growth in the world with over 75% of its population below 30 years. The proliferation of the internet, ICTs and the digital revolution means that information is readily available to the young Ugandan digital natives. Armed with information, the rampant corruption and the gaps in service delivery are inevitably apparent to them and other groups of disenfranchised and disempowered Ugandans. This is a recipe for disaster since the digital revolution has proved to have capacity to empower young people, and in some cases has led to overthrow of governments in Africa and beyond.
Perhaps what I find surprising and self-defeating is the sheer disingenuity with which Ugandans have conveniently invented a plethora of excuses to explain away our current predicament. When comparisons are made with our sister countries such as Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda, it is not uncommon for Ugandan leaders to find justification for our development trajectory, and how comparisons with other countries do not say a thing about our country. I believe that this failure to take responsibility for Uganda’s mess by its leaders is at the heart of the problem and further exacerbates our predicament.
The worst that can happen is total failure of the state. But failed states do not grind to halt overnight – state failure is a process not an event. A nation is like a human body with multiple interdependent organs, where the failure of one affects the others. Considering the pace at which things are degenerating, Uganda’s complete multiple organ failure painted in the author’s undesirable future case scenarios could possibly materialize much earlier than 2062.
As the author correctly observes, Uganda’s predicament is ultimately a failure of leadership. Everything rises and falls on leadership (per John Maxwell). Thus, there is need for strategic leaders of integrity with a burden for national transformation in the different spheres of influence.
Peterson Mwesiga
December 2019, Kampala